Sanders Still Holds Sizable Lead in New Hampshire, but Buttigieg Is Gaining
The full results are still not in from Iowa, but with 97% reporting, and Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg still neck-and-neck, the race is effectively a tie, and eyes are now moving to all-important New Hampshire.
Voters there will have their say on Tuesday, February 11, and they are itching to show the nation they have their shit together better than Iowa, which, to be fair, just set a new low bar. Like, basically touching the ground low. Thankfully, New Hampshire does not use the outdated, should-be-put-out-of-its-misery caucus system.
A strong showing in the first two states, even with their admitted lack of diversity, has been a boon to candidates in the past. Conversely, two poor showings back-to-back can spell the end of a candidate's hopes.
That's good news for Sanders, who continues to hold a lead over his opponents and is well known in the state, which neighbors his home state of Vermont. Warren also benefits by being from a neighboring state, but she appears to still be struggling to gain much ground there, and her disappointing showing in Iowa likely won't help. If she doesn't perform better there than expected, it could be the beginning of the end for her campaign, which would also be a huge benefit to Sanders, the other progressive in the race.
Speaking of disappointing showings in Iowa, Joe Biden, who had been polling a close second behind Sanders, appears to be losing support in New Hampshire.
That could prove a major opportunity for Buttigieg, whose impressive Iowa showing was a step toward proving his electability at the same time his fellow moderate, Biden, took what he has described as a "gut punch." His poor showing is even more damaging since much of his candidacy has been built around the concept that he's the Democrat best suited to defeating Trump in the general election.
Yet more cause for celebration from the Buttigieg camp comes in the form of a new poll out of Emerson College—which surveyed 500 registered Democrats and Independents, and has a margin of error of 4.3%—showing him gaining support. He is still trailing Sanders by a sizable 10%, but it puts him 9 percentage points ahead of both Biden and Warren.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics, which aggregates data from various polls, shows Sanders leading in New Hampshire by 8.5%, with a total of 25.6% supporting him. He is followed by Biden, at 17.1%, and Buttigieg, at 15%. Warren comes in at 13.9%.
FiveThirtyEight, which likewise averages out data from multiple polls, also shows Sanders leading, with 26.3%. Unlike RealClearPolitics, it has Buttigieg in second, with 16.3%, and Biden in third, with 13.6% supporting.
Biden's team appears to be teetering on the edge of panic mode, as a third place finish in New Hampshire could prove a near-fatal hit to his candidacy. The numbers are looking better for him in the third primary state of Nevada, where he and Sanders are effectively tied, but a candidate whose support is largely built on the concept of electability doing poorly in the first two states could change that outlook.
As for Buttigieg, he is in need of a strong finish in New Hampshire to help bolster his image going forward, with more diverse states like Nevada appearing to favor him less.
Biden's strategy has shifted to a more aggressive stance against both Sanders and Buttigieg, with a particular focus on the latter. The cause for that is likely two-fold: Buttigieg is his moderate rival, and Sanders' lead in New Hampshire still appears insurmountable with so few days left before the state votes.
Publicly, Biden is saying he has "great respect for Mayor Pete and his service to this nation," but that he has concerns he would lose against Trump. He has also said he doesn't think the 38 year-old has the experience necessary for the job. Privately, his team is taking an even more pointed approach, sending out talking points to surrogates noting Buttigieg has struggled to gain African-American support, which is a key voting bloc for the Democratic Party. Biden has polled much better with that demographic, especially among older African-American voters.
“After a year of running for president, he hasn’t been able to get ANY support from African-American voters,” the document, obtained by The New York Times, said of Buttigieg, mentioning his failure to gain any support among African-American voters in a recent national poll. “How do you win the Democratic nomination if you can’t get any diverse support?”
Aware of the importance of the New Hampshire results, Biden has also taken money out of South Carolina, where he benefits from a strong lead in the polls, and directed it there instead. If he uses that influx of resources to continue hammering away at Buttigieg, it could stall the former mayor's ascendancy and help Sanders maintain, if not broaden, his advantage in the state.
A tie in Iowa and a decisive win in New Hampshire would help solidify the message Sanders wishes to portray: that this is his time, and he has what it takes to win the Democratic nomination, and then successfully take on Trump in November.